Thursday, March 20, 2014

The Crimean Situation: A House of Cards-based model

Add up all your billions together and you get the GDP of Slovakia. I have the Federal Government of the United States of America. Your money doesn't intimidate me. The most that you can buy is influence; but I wield Constitutional authority.  -Frank Underwood

Though President Underwood spoke these words with regards to a fictional power struggle between himself and a billionaire energy magnate Raymond Tusk; they go a long way in explaining Russia's real takeover of the Crimean peninsula.

As a Western observer, the most frustrating aspect has been the global community's lack of recourse in dealing with naked aggression so close to the NATO homeland. No one will go to war over the Crimea, and Vladimir Putin knows it.

As an alternative, mild sanctions have been put in place, with more severe ones possible. In other words, Crimea has been snatched without consequences. In this matter, the West has no leverage over Putin, in the same way that Raymond Tusk's control over the White House was illusory.

All this has been obvious from the outset. However, the more I think about this, the more the House of Cards analogy fits. 

Economic and diplomatic sanctions mean little to either Underwood or Putin. These are just the tolls to pay on the Road to Greatness. As an unelected President and an 'elected' President, they aren't accountable to any business leaders, political allies, or even common people who bear the brunt of retaliation.

In our jaded political culture, we often think that money is equivalent to power, but Putin/Underwood remind us that it only buys influence. The West can freeze assets. It can make life (relatively) difficult for wealthy and connected Russians. That doesn't change the fact that Putin has a government and an army, along with the authority to lead them.

It's clear where he is taking his cues. It may seem that the Crimean invasion came on the heels of Ukrainian political turmoil. However, that obscures the more relevant event. It came less than a month after House of Cards Season 2 was released.

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