With 2016 still young, the odds are great that another music legend will die in this year. But who?
Lesser music figures die all the time. 2016 has seen the passings of minor luminaries such as Phife Dawg and Frank Sinatra, Jr. It's not unusual.
What makes this year different is the concentration of major artists who have passed on. With that in mind, here are the criteria I've used to guess the next earth-shaking demise:
1) Must be a household name
No obscure jazz men. No well-regarded, low-profile producers. No old-school rappers who no one outside the South Bronx ever heard.
I'm only looking at Legitimate Superstars. It's OK if they've been out of the limelight for a while. If they once ruled the world, I've considered them.
2) Must have a resolved legacy
The notably deceased of 2016 left no questions about their place in history. David Bowie and Prince are influences cited by almost everyone in pop music today. The Eagles' Their Greatest Hits (1971-1975) has gone 29x platinum. Glenn Frey has songwriting credits on seven of the ten tracks. It's de riguer for contemporary country singers to name-drop the Hag on almost every album. These guys had nothing left to prove.
I'm limiting the field to artists at least a decade past their commercial prime. Rest easy Katy Perry, you won't be resting in peace.
3) Must have nothing to gain from dying
This precludes fading pop stars who either never reached, or couldn't sustain their place at the top of their craft. For them, death could be their best career move.
I once suggested that Justin Bieber should go this route. To his credit, he made me look foolish by dropping a Number 1 album. At this point, I'm not sure Lady Gaga can do the same...
Considering all this, my prediction is:
Chuck Berry.
Everyone knows Johnny B. Goode, Maybellene, No Particular Place to Go, etc. His position in Rock and Roll history is ironclad. He's also pushing 90. If he died now, it wouldn't be overly tragic.
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